Climategate

I've been following this since news first started breaking in the UK last weekend. Dr. Curry at Georgia Tech recently published an essay, reprinted here, which I highly recommend as it sets the right tone as scientists and policy makers move forward from this. Open communication between scientists is essential as the perceived threats of global warming are starting to have significant political and economic implications for the world.

"Extraordinary claims must be supported by extraordinary evidence." If we're going to ask billions of people to accept economic hardship in the name of global warming, we better have some extraordinary evidence that withstands the scrutiny of others.

Mt. Wilson Observatory

Last night the fires threatened Mt. Wilson observatory, but the firefighters stayed through the night. Tonight, it was too dangerous. They were pulled off around sunset. As of a few minutes ago, there are reports that some of the communication towers next to the observatory have fallen to the flames. There's a good chance we'll lose the historical (and functioning) observatory tonight.

Sad.

I really enjoyed Yuri's Night in 2006, up at the observatory. Looking through the 60-inch telescope at Saturn. Parts of that telescope barely survived the 1906 Earthquake in San Francisco where they were built, and it looks like it may finally see its end tonight.

This American Life #382: "The Watchmen" (2009)

3.5/4

I occasionally listen to "This American Life", a radio show and podcast from Chicago. They had a recent episode about the watchmen, the regulators and others involved in the recent economy woes. Explaining it in plain english. If you're curious and want to actually understand it, I think it's well worth your time.

What I found most interesting, and most relevant to current events, is the discussion of how fiscal regulation currently works and, in particular, how steps taken by various Congresses and administrations since the Savings & Loans scandals in the 1980s led up to this situation.

Plus, they open with Battlestar Galactica music (from Season 1 premiere), how can't it be good?

We're Back

It was a wonderful wedding. Happy couple, beautiful view of San Francisco bay, both families in abundance. Nice and short too, which was a relief because of the heat wave Berkeley suffered on Saturday meant we were all cooking on the back porch for 10 minutes during the ceremony.

Meanwhile, in the news, a few famous people died. Kinda sad.

But perhaps as tragic is the passing of the Waxman-Markey carbon cap-and-trade bill by the House on Friday.

I'll be happy to agree that we should be conscientious in our use of exhaustible resources. But a 1200 page bill that touches dramatically on our economy and, consequently, does practically nothing real for the environment should give everyone pause. Regardless of your political leanings. Look over this.

So if it's not saving the world, a la curtailing the threat of 'global warming'... then what exactly is this bill doing? Our President said, "Make no mistake: this is a jobs bill."

But I thought we already addressed jobs with the stimulus package, which further cemented the United States' unenviable position as being the world's largest debtor. So what's this bill doing?

I fear nothing good for most of us.

Green

As I write this, it is another morning in Tehran. Yesterday saw the March of Silence, as an estimated 2 million people filled the largest avenue of the city during a 3 hour silent protest. The organizers orchestrated it to debunk the government stance that the protesters are merely a bunch of thugs. It was an impressive demonstration.

It is interesting to see what is happening in Iran. Some have drawn parallels to the Cedar Revolution in Lebanon in 2005, which was also a greatly inspiring moment and a large step towards democracy. Lebanon has had its fair share of problems since then, although one might argue much of that may be instigated from a theocratic republic to their east.

The world watches as the will of a vibrant people comes into conflict with their government over what, from all appearances, was a fraudulent election. I wish them the best, and I hope our administration (understandingly surprised by this, as everyone is) will support the popular push for a more open democracy. It's in everyone's best interests, even if it places much at risk. I applaud the State department for asking Twitter to maintain their servers instead of taking them down for planned upgrades. Let's do more for these people.

In 1776, our founding fathers didn't stand alone either.

Voter Research

I just finished hours of internet research so that I'd be prepared to vote tomorrow. Hours of looking up obscure judicial candidates and trying to make some sort of sense over which one would make a better judge. How is democracy supposed to work if it is so hard to find information about the candidates? I guess it certainly saves time if you're one of those people that votes straight ticket, but I'm telling you I just saw plenty of unqualified, crazy, and lackluster candidates from both parties.

Plenty of people have lamented the practice of voting for justices. How is it nobody likes this system, but we can't seem to get rid of it? My least favorite office I just had to try to choose a candidate for, though, was Railroad Commissioner. Seriously? What the hell do I know about that? I don't even know what that person does, let alone who the best candidate is.

I just hope it doesn't take me hours and hours to vote tomorrow. I have work that needs to be done.

Flyout

I'm torn between worrying about the "financial crisis" that is causing so much drama in the news ("Europe Falls Into the Abyss", "DOW Plunges"), and a state of detachment. We actually do have a substantial amount of money invested, and I can see the account balances falling alarmingly. But I can't get over the idea that my money must have bought SOMETHING. I guess the funds I own could go bankrupt, and we'd lose it all. But it just seems like if all those things were worth money yesterday, they still are worth money today, and will be worth money in the future. How can it all be vapor?

Maybe it's just that I really do have the long-term investor mindset. For all of me, that money temporarily ceased to exist when we invested it. As long as I get back what I need when Carina goes to college and we retire, I'm happy. I don't care if it zigs and zags in the meantime.

In less depressing news, we had an excellent time flying this weekend. Becca and I both rented planes, and we took Gavin, Carina, Byron, Paul, and Jen to Fayette Regional for their monthly BBQ flyout. It was Carina's first plane ride with me. She did pretty well. She slept most of both legs, wearing her little earmuffs. Gavin took some photos, but I don't think he's uploaded them yet. The professional pilot with us did some fancy legwork to get within range to take some great in-flight photos of us, which Becca posted on her blog today. It was fun, although I think we're going to have to get Gavin on some anti-motion sickness meds. He wasn't feeling great with all the bumps in the air yesterday.

Rock the Vote

I think more than 5 people read this blog. Maybe.

Palin vs Biden

So disappointed there weren't really any fireworks. Here's what I heard:

Palin: I love oil! I hate taxes! We're mavericks!

Biden: The war in Iraq sucks. Ramble, ramble.

My favorite quote was actually from Defective Yeti. "Oh my god, stop grinning Biden. You look like the host of Press Your Luck. NO WHAMMIES SARAH!!"

Word Clouds

A graphics designer took the 150 most used words from both presidential candidate speeches at their conventions and created 'word clouds' of them, with the most used ones being the largest. It's interesting to look over.

"Palin who?"

That was my first response today at hearing the announcement. All I knew was that she was a woman and from Alaska.

So after Carina went to bed tonight, I scoured the internet to find out what I could.

Wikipedia had some background, but, really the most enjoyable video I found was this one. I wish more of the talking heads was as entertaining (and informative) as this guy.



Anyways, it was an fun week. Work was great in Virginia, I got to see some family who I hadn't seen in 12 years and I got to go sailing. I was hoping for specifics on change from the Democrats and got a nice fireworks show that reminded me of Beijing. McCain's veep choice is unexpected. I'm looking forward to the debates.

[Update @ 11:45pm]
This is a good one too.

Trial versus Tribunal

The recent Supreme Court decision will have important ramifications for the future of anti-terrorism efforts by the U.S. The U.S. military, in response to an earlier decision by the Court, had already granted detainees much more legal process than required for enemy combatants by the Geneva conventions. Apparently that wasn't enough for five justices.

Iraq is Improving

It's been clear to several on the ground since last fall that the situation is improving dramatically. There are a number of reasons for this. One is the surge of American troops, as the numbers previously there were too few. But much of the credit goes to the Iraqis.

Now that the US primaries are over, this is starting to make the news. The Economist has a decent summary of where Iraq is. The more who read it, the better. I agree with its statement that America must remain flexible to conditions in Iraq, and not make a unilateral promise to withdraw troops regardless of the situation.

Run for the Torch!

A nice first-hand account of the torch run in San Franciso with great pictures. I liked reading about the underground Torch reporting text message system and the ensuing chase through the streets. This could become a new Olympic sport, with lots of public participation!

Personally, I have no problem with people peacefully protesting along the torch route with banners and what have you. The people attempting to disrupt the event and extinguish the torch get little sympathy from me when the police tackle them.

Choose Your Candidate

Jen O has a link to a nice Washington Post exercise where you can review presidential candidate responses to questions and then, at the the end, see who you most agreed with. Since I began voting I generally lean Republican. That said, I've voted for 1 Republican and 2 Democrats in the last 3 Presidential elections.

Of the Republican candidates, I had 46 points with McCain, 24 points with Romney, 12 points with Paul, and 11 points with Thompson. Guiliani and Huckabee each got 3. Mostly no surprise, although I definitely like Thompson much more than Paul... I think Thompson's stances on many issues are somewhat similar to McCain or Romney. I just happened to pick theirs more often, based off of the points raised and the writing of the response.

I had some difficulty with the Democratic candidates. Often I found myself staring at three responses I didn't agree with at all. So I clicked on one and then ranked the importance to be zero. Clinton with 38 points, Obama with 19, and Edwards with 16. Not much surprise there, although I'm a little surprised I ended up with Edwards as high as Obama.

Anyways, several more weeks until the Texas primaries.

What is Israel thinking?

A long post from me. The events in the Middle East of the last few days have been troubling. Popular opinion across the world seems to agree that Israel's reactions have been beyond what most considerable reasonable. So, I'm going to speculate on why I think Israel has acted so. Maybe by the end of it I'll decide whether or not I agree with it.

First, the situation as I understand it.

Twice before, Israel has invaded southern Lebanon in response to border crossing attacks. Back then the terrorist organization was PLO under Yassar Arafat. Hezbollah formed in response to the second Israeli invasion. It wasn't until 2000 when Israel withdrew from portions of southern Lebanon that the UN finally considered the Israel invasion of Lebanon over. One casualty estimate from these invasions totals over 15,000. Hezbollah received credit from many in southern Lebanon for Israel's pullout in 2000.

In 2004 Germany broked a prisoner trade between Hezbollah and Israel where two Israelis, a civilian and a retired officer, and the remains of three Israeli soldiers were traded for the release several dozen Lebanese guerilla prisoners. This trade was greatly unpopular among Israelis while in Lebanon the militants were welcomed home amid fanfare by both Hezbollah and the Lebanese president. When Hezbollah deliberately captured Israeli soldiers last week and then demanded another prisoner trade, there was little incentive for Israel to agree since another prisoner trade would merely encourage Hezbollah to continue to try to attack and capture Israeli soldiers and citizens again and again. Obviously a different response is necessary.

Other factors to consider. Lebanon recently managed to evict Syrian armed forces in 2005, an event that the global community celebrated, Lebanese and Israeli and the West alike. In the parliamentary elections that followed, Hezbollah received strong support in southern Lebanon and became elected members of government. The militia wing of Hezbollah is allowed by the Lebanese government to operate freely in southern Lebanon, a topic that is extremely controversial in Lebanon. My impression is that the rest of the Lebanon can't prevent Hezbollah from acting as it wishes. The militia wing also receives financial support from Syria and alleged military and intel support from Iran. Both countries that are intolerant of Israel's existance. There is also evidence that Hezbollah has been providing training and arms to Hamas.

Given the situation, what should Israel's short-term and long-term objectives be?

Obviously they consider the safety and security of Israeli citizens paramount. In the short-term, the captured Israeli soldiers must be rescued and Hezbollah's capability to attack must be neutralized. In the long-term, Israel would like to see militant groups like Hezbollah receive less popular support and eventually wither away into obscurity.

To neutralize Hezbollah's immediate offensive capabilities, the effective targets are the resources in materials, experienced personnel, and supply routes. Since much of Hezbollah's resources are spread through civilian areas in southern Lebanon, I see three choices to neutralize them. One is to invade and capture these as was tried before. Another is to use surgical strikes to destroy resources and prevent resupply of Hezbollah from Syria and/or Iran. The third is to coerce Hezbollah into ceasing operations by convincing their suppliers to stop providing... unlikely in the case of Syria and Iran.

To secure the return of the Israeli captives I see three choices. Locate them and rescue them with a strike team, invade southern Lebanon and locate and free them, or convince Hezbollah to surrender them. Hezbollah likely won't surrender them without great pressure from the rest of Lebanon's government and public, or pressure by other Arab power bases.

The fact that parts of Lebanon elected Hezbollah is indicative of their popular support and also presents an option that may allow Israel to meet all of their objectives without invading Lebanon.

What has Israel done?

They have decided to consider Hezbollah as part of Lebanon's government, which means Hezbollah's acts constitute overt hostile acts of one state against another, and therefore can use that as a legal premise to attack the infrastructure of Lebanon. By attacking bridges, airports, and seaports it becomes much more difficult to resupply Hezbollah (and Lebanon for that matter). By attacking the infrastructure and making it clear that this is a response to Hezbollah's attacks, it may turn popular support against Hezbollah, deter future attacks, and return the captives. (It may also do the opposite.) By attacking Hezbollah's headquarters and supply houses, Israel strikes at the resources they currently have. In many ways this response is similar to the American response to September 11 by striking and invading Afganhistan, whose Taliban government supported Al-Qaeda's attacks. If these surgical strikes and limited warfare do not succeed in meeting Israel's objectives, the invasion option is still there.

My spin on all this.

Given the situation and given the decision by Israel to try to force a resolution to Hezbollah's repeated attacks, the Israeli response makes some sense. I personally hoped for a more measured response that dealt with the captives but that would not have prevented future attacks by Hezbollah. Delaying such a resolution would only be in the interest of Hezbollah. I hope the crisis is resolved before Israel believes an invasion to be necessary, but at this time I unfortunately consider that unlikely. If that happens, I'm unsure what will happen next.

I think the world is unsure what will happen next.

Equality is Hard

I’ve been sitting here staring at a blank page, thinking about what I’d like to say about this article that Jen O mentioned on her blog. I’m finding it difficult to organize the thoughts that are swirling around in my head. This subject always gets me going.

I don't necessarily agree with the idea that child-rearing is unrewarding. Of course it is rewarding. If it wasn't, nobody would ever have kids (on purpose). The question is, why do so many women feel it is more important than career, when so few men feel the same?

I want a baby right now as much as I’ve ever wanted anything in my life. I also love my job. I’m ambitious. I don’t want to take time off from my career to raise children. Nevertheless, I will love my children as much and as fiercely as any traditional mother you care to name.

I've been been accused in the past of being too judgemental about this subject. After all, I love my job. Not everybody does. Why not stay home with kids if you don't need the money? But that could be said of men, too. Why don't you see as many men with 9-5's that don't thrill them volunteering to stay at home with the diapers and the laundry?

Here's what I'm afraid is happening. Women have made enough progress that a determined, talented woman can usually have the career she wants. If she's willing to sacrifice, if she won't take no for an answer, she can probably have a the career she wants and a family. But we seem to be pulling away from demanding that women be truly treated as equal partners in the home. I'm belive that this may be because we as women have been unwilling to accept the negatives of true equality along with the positives.

Because there are negatives. We would have to accept responsibility for some things we don't want to do along with the things that we do want. Working when you really don't want to work. Spending time away from your children when your career requires it. Paying for the guy on dates half the time. Equal responsibility for defending our nation and our communities - yes, I am partially talking about the draft here.

Personally, I will accept the bad with the good. But how many women feel differently, deep down?